Modelos de oportunidades intervenientes de distribuição de viagens: um novo método de calibração do modelo de Schneider
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v11i1.116Abstract
Uma das questões importantes, sobre a qual se debruçam pesquisadores e planejadores urbanos, é o desequilíbrio entre a demanda e a oferta de espaço viário de circulação de veículos e pessoas, decorrente do aumento populacional, da expansão física das cidades e de seus sistemas de atividades. Para estimar a matriz de origem-destino de viagens resultante destas alterações, os modelos de oportunidades intervenientes são credenciados pela consistência teórica que apresentam. Daí resulta a importância desses modelos "vis-à-vis" os modelos gravitacionais, na avaliação dos efeitos da expansão urbana sobre os padrões de distribuição de viagens de pessoas, estudos de market share, etc.. Após analisar criticamente o modelo de Schneider e seus procedimentos alternativos de calibração, os autores propõem um novo procedimento de calibração para este modelo, baseado numa nova maneira de determinar o parâmetro l, através do método da máxima verossimilhança. Tal procedimento conduziu a uma melhor interpretação desse parâmetro.
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