Statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrix from traffic counts

Authors

  • Anselmo Ramalho Pitombeira Neto Universidade Federal do Ceará http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9234-8917
  • Francisco Moraes Oliveira Neto Universidade Federal do Ceará
  • Carlos Felipe Grangeiro Loureiro Universidade Federal do Ceará

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v25i4.1344

Keywords:

Origin-destination matrix, Transportation demand, Statistical models.

Abstract

In transportation planning, one of the first steps is to estimate the travel demand. The final product of the estimation process is an origin-destination (OD) matrix, whose entries correspond to the number of trips between pairs of origin-destination zones in a study region. In this paper, we review the main statistical models proposed in the literature for the estimation of the OD matrix based on traffic counts. Unlike reconstruction models, statistical models do not aim at estimating the exact OD matrix corresponding to observed traffic volumes, but they rather aim at estimating the parameters of a statistical model of the population of OD matrices. Initially we define the estimation problem, emphasizing its underspecified nature, which has lead to the development of several models based on different approaches. We describe static models whose parameters are estimated by means of maximum likelihood, the method of moments, and Bayesian inference. We also describe  some recent dynamic models. Following that, we discuss research questions related to the underspecification problem, model assumptions and the estimation of the route choice matrix, and indicate promising research directions.

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Author Biographies

Anselmo Ramalho Pitombeira Neto, Universidade Federal do Ceará

Possui graduação em Engenharia de Produção Mecânica (Universidade Federal do Ceará, 2005), mestrado em Engenharia Mecânica  (Universidade de São Paulo , 2008) e doutorado em Engenharia de Transportes (Universidade Federal do Ceará , 2015). É professor adjunto do Departamento de Engenharia de Produção da Universidade Federal do Ceará, no qual leciona as disciplinas de Pesquisa Operacional, Simulação de Sistemas e Economia da Engenharia. Possui publicações nas revistas Computers and Industrial Engineering, Journal of Advanced Transportation, Transportes, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, e International Journal of Simulation Modelling, e em anais de eventos como ENEGEP, SIMPEP, SBPO, ANPET, ICPR e WinterSim. Seus interesses de pesquisa incluem a aplicação de programação matemática, meta-heurísticas, modelagem e simulação estocástica, e métodos estatísticos a problemas em sistemas de produção e transportes. Lidera o grupo de pesquisa OPL - Pesquisa Operacional em Produção e Logística.

Francisco Moraes Oliveira Neto, Universidade Federal do Ceará

Departamento de Engenharia de Transportes/Planejamento de transportes

Carlos Felipe Grangeiro Loureiro, Universidade Federal do Ceará

Departamento de Engenharia de Transportes/Planejamento de transportes

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Published

2017-12-30

How to Cite

Pitombeira Neto, A. R., Oliveira Neto, F. M., & Loureiro, C. F. G. (2017). Statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrix from traffic counts. TRANSPORTES, 25(4), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v25i4.1344

Issue

Vol. 25 No. 4 (2017)

Section

Artigos

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