CENÁRIOS PARA O SETOR DE TRANSPORTES NO BRASIL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v5i2.278Abstract
O Grupo Shell começou a utilizar a técnica de cenários em seu processo de planejamento no final dos anos 60. Isto foi feito depois de constatar que a velocidade de mudanças no meio ambiente tinha chegado a tal ponto que não permitiria mais o uso de projeções lineares baseadas em comportamentos históricos. Era necessário desenvolver uma técnica que permitisse vislumbrar as tendências de mudanças de comportamento do meio ambiente antes de ser surpreendido por elas. A crescente complexidade da relação entre todas as variáveis que influenciam o meio ambiente e a rapidez com que as mudanças acontecem fazem com que o futuro seja muito mais imprevisível hoje do que há 100 anos atrás. Possivelmente os estrategistas daquela época achavam o mesmo do período anterior, uma vez que a velocidade de mudança parece estar em constante aceleração. Desta forma, planejamento torna-se um processo de aprendizado e cenários um importante instrumento deste processo.
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