PREVISÃO DA DEMANDA DE VIAGENS PARA ANÁLISES DE INVESTIMENTO PELO MÉTODO DE CRESCIMENTO COM RESTRIÇÃO
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v4i1.292Abstract
O principal objetivo deste estudo e investigar a possibilidade de simular através de procedimentos simples os resultados de um modelo de equilíbrio com demanda elástica para previsão de viagens em analise de investimentos. Será introduzida uma restrição de velocidade para o crescimento das viagens, juntamente com um modelo inelástico para todos os pares de origem-destino. E uma técnica voltada para estudos de demanda em áreas urbanas congestionadas, analisadas sob enfoque temporal, utilizando o software NES. A proposta e inicialmente testada em modelos simplificados representados por um par de origem-destino para melhor compreensão do método, e posteriormente aplicada para a rede da cidade de Cardiff - Reino Unido.
ABSTRACT
The main objective of this study is to investigate the possibility of approximating equilibrium transport models in simplified forms with respect to elasticity and growth properties. The investigation presented here is relevant to both urban and non-urban demand analysis, with special emphasis placed on congested urban conditions. A general equilibrium framework for demand analysis within temporal context is initially proposed. A computer program NES which implements an elastic equilibrium assignment model is used. The approach is initially tested for a simplified single link representation of the system and later extended to a network context, using Cardiff-UK data base.
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