Desenvolvimento e aplicação de modelos para previsão de acidentes de trânsito
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v15i2.35Abstract
Este trabalho apresenta uma síntese do estudo que desenvolveu modelos para previsão de acidentes em vias arteriais urbanas, com enfoque na metodologia aplicada e resultados obtidos. O objetivo do trabalho foi gerar modelos de previsão de acidentes a partir de variáveis relacionadas à exposição e fatores de risco. O estudo foi desenvolvido com dados de vias arteriais urbanas da cidade de Porto Alegre, capital do estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. Foi utilizada a técnica de Modelagem Linear Generalizada com distribuição de probabilidade de Poisson para relacionar a ocorrência de acidentes às variáveis explicativas. Os modelos de previsão de acidentes construídos explicaram mais de 60% da variabilidade dos dados. Isso comprova a relação entre os acidentes de trânsito e as variáveis estudadas.
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