MÉTODO PROBABILÍSTICO PARA IDENTIFICAÇÃO DE ZONAS DE ACUMULAÇÃO DE ACIDENTES

Authors

  • Sara Ferreira Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto
  • António Couto Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4237/transportes.v21i3.683

Abstract

Neste trabalho apresenta-se um novo método de definição e identificação de zonas de acumulação (ZAA) de acidentes considerando um modelo de regressão binário. Este modelo permite calcular a probabilidade de um local ser ou não ZAA tendo em conta as características geométricas e funcionais do mesmo. Este novo método foi aplicado ao caso das interseções tendo-se, para tal, gerado uma base de dados fictícia considerando as características da sinistralidade e das interseções da cidade do Porto. Através da simulação de dados é possível conhecer a priori as “verdadeiras” ZAA. O desempenho do método foi analisado com base nos erros resultantes da classificação dos locais em ZAA ou não-ZAA, e comparado com dois dos métodos mais aplicados e analisados – o método de ranking pelo número de acidentes e o método Bayesiano-empírico. Desta análise verificou-se que o método binário proposto tem claramente melhor desempenho.

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V. 21, n. 3, Dez. 2013

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Published

2013-11-14

How to Cite

Ferreira, S., & Couto, A. (2013). MÉTODO PROBABILÍSTICO PARA IDENTIFICAÇÃO DE ZONAS DE ACUMULAÇÃO DE ACIDENTES. Transportes, 21(3), 48–55. https://doi.org/10.4237/transportes.v21i3.683

Issue

Vol. 21 No. 3 (2013)

Section

Articles

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