O efeito de diferentes agregações dos níveis de severidade de acidentes com pedestres em áreas urbanas

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v30i3.2664

Palavras-chave:

Severidade das lesões, Atropelamentos, Modelo logit multinomial

Resumo

A promoção de um ambiente viário mais seguro para os pedestres requer uma compreensão dos fatores de risco associados às lesões sofridas por esses usuários enquanto envolvidos em acidentes de trânsito. Os níveis de lesões registrados pelos relatórios policiais podem estar sujeitos a viés e erros, especialmente nas categorias de lesões adjacentes e não extremas. O objetivo deste estudo é investigar o impacto de diferentes configurações de classificação da severidade na identificação de fatores relacionados a acidentes envolvendo pedestres em áreas urbanas. Modelos logit multinomiais foram estimados utilizando registros de acidentes da cidade de Fortaleza entre os anos de 2017 e 2019. Os resultados indicaram que a combinação de alguns níveis de severidade pode levar a diferentes variáveis ​​significativas e, portanto, dependendo da especificação da variável de resposta, a influência de importantes fatores de risco pode acabar sendo ignorada no modelo. Entre os fatores analisados, a idade dos pedestres, o dia da semana, o horário do acidente e o tipo de via permaneceram significativos para as diferentes configurações de níveis de gravidade. Além disso, o modelo com três categorias de gravidade (leve / moderada, grave e fatal) apresentou o melhor desempenho em termos de ajuste do modelo. Observou-se nesse modelo que fatores como idade avançada dos pedestres, acidentes no período noturno, com veículos pesados, nos finais de semana e localizados em vias com maior classificação viária estão associados a lesões mais graves.

 

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11-10-2022

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Nogueira Silva, M., Craveiro Cunto, F. J. ., & Timbó Lima Gomes, M. J. . (2022). O efeito de diferentes agregações dos níveis de severidade de acidentes com pedestres em áreas urbanas. TRANSPORTES, 30(3), 2664. https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v30i3.2664

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